2020 Election Night Hub
This page contains live results for Pennsylvania. My goal is not to predict the winner of the state. In fact, it’s the opposite. My goal is to understand where the tallied votes are from, where the untallied votes are from, and encourage caution in making assumptions on incomplete data.
There are three categories of ballot: in-person, mail-in that has already been received (“returned”), and mail-in that has not yet been received (“outstanding”). Any ballot postmarked by 11/3 and received by 11/6 will be counted (unless the Supreme Court interferes). Counted Votes include all in-person and an unknown proportion returned mail-ins.*
Updated 11:12 AM
Methodology and Definitions (Important)
Counted Votes: The current total votes for each candidate. These are from electionreturns.pa.gov, and include results from an unknown number of precincts.
Uncounted Mail-Ins*: An estimate of the votes from returned mail-in ballots left to count. For counties with at least 1000 mail-in votes counted, this is each candidate’s current county-level percentage among the mail-ins times the number of returned-but-uncounted mail-in ballots. For counties with fewer than 1000, this is just the number of returned-but-uncounted mail-ins by party registration.
Remaining Live Votes (second-to-top bar): This is a super naive allocation of votes in the precincts that haven’t yet reported. The PA data does not show how many precincts have reported from a given county. So I take the 2016 turnout, apply a multiplier, and subtract the current vote total. That multiplier starts at 1.0 but will change through the night. Remaining Live Votes serves only as an order of magnitude. Do not trust it. Just wait.
Outstanding Mail-Ins (top bar): This is the number of mail-in ballots that have not been marked received yet. Ballots received through 11/6 will be counted, unless the Supreme Court interferes.
Data Sources
Live results from electionreturns.pa.gov. (Updated 2020-11-04 11:12:50)
Mail-in data from data.pa.gov. (Updated 2020-11-04 06:33:45)
Maps of Current Results
County-Level Results
Maps of Change in Current Results from 2016
Maps of Change in Turnout from 2016
Does not account for in-person, non-reporting precincts yet! I filter out counties with a ton of precincts left to report.
Scatters of Change
